Trump’s trade war bluster was a lot of hot air, but we must remain vigilant

This time last week, Canadians had some legitimate reasons to be concerned of a coming trade war, with the U.S. President Donald Trump threatening us with tariffs. While these tariffs would, at the last minute, be stopped for at least 30 days, it left Canadians feeling uneasy. Since before he had even taken the mantle of president, Trump has been using clearly threatening language against us, our elected officials, and our people. In no time, he has flushed well over a century of goodwill, cooperation, and strong economic ties between our two nations down the drain. But now that those plans are on temporary pause, we need to ask ourselves how we got here, what is Trump’s end game, and has our national response been adequate?

So what was/is Trump’s plan? Like most of what Trump does, it seems incoherent at best, outright belligerent at worst. He has stated “they've got to stop people from pouring into our country ... they have to stop people pouring in, and we have to stop Fentanyl.” If we were dealing with a rational person saying this, one might ask certain questions about what he means by these statements. What kinds of people are “pouring into” their country from Canada? He claims it’s “millions and millions” but numbers from U.S. Customs and Border Protection apprehended 23,721 people who illegally crossed the U.S.-Canada border (1.5 percent of all U.S. border apprehensions came in from Canada) in 2024. While Canadian officials from the federal and provincial governments have been attempting to appease his concerns with some increases in patrols, including investments of $1.3 billion in addition to normal funding for CBSA, it was not clear what would constitute appropriate levels of investment for Trump because, let’s be frank, he doesn’t operate on measurable goals.

With respect to Fentanyl, how much is flowing into the U.S. from Canada? 43 pounds in 2024 was apprehended at the border, representing 0.2 percent of all Fentanyl seized at a border crossing entering the U.S. His justifications make no sense, because his argument makes no sense. Nobody is saying Fentanyl isn’t a problem. It’s a problem in Canada too. We also have drugs and handguns coming over the border from the U.S. as well, but we’ve never threatened our neighbors for refusing to address either issue. During those last-minute negotiations, it seems like the appointment of a “Fentanyl Czar” and a Canada- U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, Fentanyl and money laundering, at a cost of $200 million was enough to put a pause on tariffs, apparently.

So other than these two issues, Trump hasn’t exactly been cagy about Canada becoming part of the U.S. He noted in a statement in his barely-used Truth Social app that “Canada should become our Cherished 51st State” on Sunday. He’s previously cited “economic force” on Canada to become the 51^st state. He has this fascination with Manifest Destiny, the bizarre 19^th century idea that the U.S. should expand to encompass all North American territory. But Canadians abhor this idea.

While a pause on tariffs is welcome, we must remain vigilant and keep all options on the table. We must address the elephant in the room: that while retaliatory tariffs may be necessary in the future, they may impact costs and jobs here at home. The Prime Minister and Canada’s Premier’s co-developed a response, and while it’s good that we don’t need to use that plan at the moment, we need to further develop it to both protect Canadian business and build bridges with other trading partners. We should develop a Build Canadian Buy Canadian plan, one that overhauls our longstanding procurement and manufacturing issues, and build more right here in Canada. We export a lot of critical resources and minerals, and we must hit back directly with dollar-for-dollar tariffs if it comes to that. We must also plan an approach that would hit certain key American industries hard if these threats are made again, such as against Elon Musk’s Tesla. We should also consider banning any American companies from Canadian government procurement until the threat of tariffs cease.

But much like we’ve always been, Canadians are a tough but friendly people. These threats will not be forgotten, particularly in the face of all of the good we’ve done for our neighbors. The diverted flights to Gander on 9/11. Our shared history in fighting Nazis in World War 2. Even our recent assistance of sending down water bombers to fight the LA fires. We’ve never been anything but cordial, good neighbours. But Trump has united us in our opposition to his insane plans. The U.S. national anthem has recently been booed mercilessly at Canadian sporting events, Canadian organizations and individuals have created buy Canadian (and Mexican and any other products from reliable trading partners) lists to help their fellow Canadians ensure they aren’t buying American products. This rift can be healed, but it won’t soon be forgotten.