Prime Minister Resigns, Trump Threatens Tariffs, Welcome to 2025

While many of us were just getting back into the swing of things following the holiday season, the news broke on January 6^th that the Prime Minister was resigning, and he prorogued Parliament, shutting down debate, ending bills, and leaving Canada in a rudderless state at a vital time in our history. With the serious threat of tariffs from U.S. President-Elect Trump, where does that leave Canadians, and what can we expect in the coming months?

Much has been written about the Prime Minister’s resignation. While he still remains the Prime Minister until a new Liberal leader has been chosen, it creates an obvious void, where our national leader no longer feels like he’s leading anything. In another time, this may have been a rational thing to do for an increasingly unpopular PM. He’s had plenty of time to contemplate his exit, but it’s obvious that this should have been done sooner.

Down in the polls and facing a revolt from his own party and following a series of significant by-election losses in traditionally Liberal-friendly ridings, he had little room left to maneuver. That last sentence could have been written in June, August, or October of last year. While certainly less insane than the previous time January 6^th became a noteworthy date, when the U.S. Capitol was attacked prior to President Biden’s certification, the decision may well cement Trudeau’s legacy as a person who has lofty ideas but always refuses to plan ahead. Now, we’re a week or two away from seeing if Trump’s economic threats to Canada bear fruit while the Liberal Party decides who they want to replace him with to try and correct course.

Those threats, a 25 percent tariff on goods imported from Canada to the U.S., are really going to hurt people on both sides of our shared border for no logical reason. There’s some vague gesturing from Trump that it has something to do with our border, but he’s put forward no concrete measures that would make him reconsider. It’s all gut feeling. At a time when the cost of essentials like food and lodging remain sky-high, this threat isn’t going to “Make America Great Again,” it’s going to cost Americans as much as Canadians, possibly more. The list of items we are set to tariff in retaliation include American steel products, ceramics, glassware, and a variety of plastic products, among other items. Those will hurt, but we produce many of those items on our own. Americans are going to find out quickly that increased costs on lumber, crude oil, car parts, critical minerals, and energy will cut into their spending significantly. Tariffs can be an effective tool to target certain markets, but blanket tariffs hurt everyone. Perhaps Canada should additionally consider tariffs on non-union made vehicles to hit back against a certain unelected billionaire who uses his social media platform to push this stupid agenda.

Given the uncertainty that has been created by the resignation of the Prime Minister, the reaction has been…let’s say inconsistent…from both federal and provincial leaders. While the federal Liberals have carved out those proposed retaliatory tariffs, it’s a grab bag of items rather than the American approach of applying it to any items coming over the border. Pierre Poilievre seems to be mostly mum. He’s made some weird comments about building data centres for tech giants like Meta and Google out of one side of his mouth while decrying corporate welfare out of the other. Doug Ford, who once said his support for Trump “wouldn’t waver” has been on the American TV circuit trying to argue against his buddy’s devastating economic plans. And Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, never one to be outdone, flew to Mar-a-Lago last weekend to bend the knee to Trump and, for some reason, Kevin O’Leary, to speak about oil carveouts.

We aren’t dealing with a rational person who would listen to our concerns and work constructively with us, we’re talking about Trump, who spent his last campaign falsely talking about immigrants eating pets and discussed Hannibal Lecter like he was an actual person. He campaigned on bringing down prices for essentials, then immediately reversed course once the ballots were counted. We need to be prepared to meet his tariffs head on if necessary and keep some things off of the table in the event that we need to escalate. Canada has the critical minerals, energy, lumber, and other important goods they need. We need to have challenges under the Canada US Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) prepared now, to put in effect if needed. And we need to be prepared to diversify our trading partners, perhaps very publicly.

Henry Kissinger once said that “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” As their largest trading partner and consistent ally during our shared history, I don’t believe this to be true. We’ve had significant differences in opinion (Vietnam, Iraq War, universal health care) but have always managed a friendly relationship. But Americans need to know that their incoming President-elect isn’t doing them any favours and that Canada won’t be pushed around.